In the light of factors such as Brexit, the agreement of OPEC and non-OPEC countries to reduce oil production and the change of government in the United States, how do you judge the context of the natural gas market?

We expect Brexit to have quite a minor impact on the Group’s activities, including on our gas business. However, the situation in the United States is creating uncertainty. Remember that the country had put an embargo on oil exports with the aim of reserving its production for the domestic market and thus trying to lower the price of this energy in the United States. Our baseline scenario anticipates significant American exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), but all the same I do not believe that we are shielded today from a protectionist reflex which might one day restrict U.S. gas exports, under pressure from American industry. The current period of overproduction is leading to relatively low prices pretty much throughout the world. This situation will not change in the very short term, but should rebalance naturally in the first half of the 2020s. The key question is how fast the substitution of coal by gas will occur in a certain number of countries. The fastest way of reducing global CO₂ emissions is to replace much of the coal-generated electricity production by gas-generated production. And depending on the pace at which this happens, the rebalancing of the gas market will occur sooner or later.

According to a study carried out by Cedigaz, growth of the natural gas market over the next five years is forecast at between 1% and 1.5% per year. What are the potential growth areas and for what uses?

On this subject, we agree on the relatively convergent scenarios of IFPEN, IEA and, indeed, Cedigaz. Growth in gas consumption will occur primarily in non-OECD countries, while demand will tend to remain stagnant in OECD countries, except in the United States and Canada where it will continue to grow. At a worldwide level, the growth potential for gas is based on the substitution of coal in power generation and new uses, such as retail LNG or LNG for vehicles. Here we see a renewed potential in terms of reducing carbon emissions. China retains its potential because even with lower growth, it needs to substitute coal with natural gas even if only for reasons of improving air quality. In India, this substitution will only occur if the price of gas is competitive. Additionally, other countries such as Brazil have very substantial energy needs. In Europe, growth will be modest because all the energy efficiency efforts are continuing and will lead to a situation of very low growth or decrease in energy demand. But the extremely important point is that, whether at European or global level, there is no scenario compatible with maintaining global warming at below 2° C which does not make a very considerable use of natural gas and progressively biomethane, for at least the next thirty years. […]